Monday, March 05, 2012

Biflation in Australia

There has been an argument going around is world facing inflationary forces or deflationary forces and people have been giving arguments on both sides. I am of view that we are facing biflationary forces.

Biflation is a state of the economy where the processes of inflation and deflation occur simultaneously. During Biflation, there's a rise in the price of commodity/earnings-based assets (inflation) and a simultaneous fall in the price of debt-based assets (deflation). The price of all assets are based on the demand for them versus the volume of money in circulation to buy them.

I am sure that due to money printing by US Fed and ECB that biflationary forces are affecting USA and Europe. But what about Australia.

So if Australia was facing  biflationary forces then the price of commodities would be trending up and price of houses and vehicles would be going down.

So in terms of commodity prices they have risen significantly over the last six years e.g

The data I have seen is showing that median prices of property are increasing which is different to anecdotal evidence I see around my area which seems that the property prices have been depressed in the last year and some people I know are under water in their mortgages.

But the definition is the fall of debt based assets, so for me the best indicator that I found was the amount of loans that have been approved.  According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics  in 2011 the number of mortgages was the lowest ever figure for home loan approvals since February 2001.

So if Australia has Biflationary forces what does that mean?


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