Friday, April 07, 2006

Predicting future events, the value of being part of the event

One thing I enjoy doing is predicting the future eg larry brown's influence will help the new york knicks:). I will give that prediction another year.

So why would I predict events where I am not inolved with or not even be in the country where it takes place. My final year project at Uni was to create a Horse handicap system which is basically to get all the known recordable factors in winning a horse race and then quantify the chances for each horse in the race. This is actioned without seeing any of the horses or races live. In fact I found being part of the action confuses things and adds to biases which means incorrect predictions.

The Handicap system took me one full year to complete but it is probably one of the most complete projects I have ever completed. The project I actually wanted to do was create an operating system that is able to recompile itself with new code, which I think is the most important step in AI.

The developing of a Horse Handicap system has given me the skill to breakdown future events with a good understanding in identifying what factors are needed for a particular event to occur. It is also a very good skill to have in management/life as there will be some decisions in life that you have to make/abstain from a decision that will siginificantly progress/hinder you/company.

The key though is a gut feeling about certain factors and usually it comes as a bullshit detector. As usually everything I read/listen/watch includes an angle that I think they are trying to potray. Like the angle for this post it to bring more credibility to my predictions and add more posts

This topic came up after I wrote recommendations to Microsoft and blogged that Joakim Noah should have the number one choice in the NBA without even seeing him play.

My opinion is that being away from the events gives you more objectivity so a better chance for selecting the correct outcome. if we go back to the racing analogy knowing trainers, jockeys, bookmakers and seeing the horses could actually be a negative factor compared to getting all the info from the internet and tv.


Blogger Jake Silver said...

I'm glad you're still Blogging, George. I don't always have the time these days to Blog Surf, but when I do, "Really" is still a favorite stop.

12:39 am  

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