Friday, March 31, 2006

Kadima vs Hamas Zero-Sum Politics

As I predicted months ago Kadima has won the Israel election. What supprised me was the number of different parties that have won a significant number of votes. Cant really call it a win with only around 15% of potential voters.

I have got a feeling that the low voter turnout was because some old Likud voters didnt want to take part in the election so a significant portion of missing voters were likud supporters.

My first political post was on the middle east where the key factor was the Israeli/Palestinian relationship. So I think Kadima and Labour party doing well is a good sign.

I see asking Hamas to acknowlegde that Israel is state is like trying to make a lion a vegetarian, its possible but not the current generation. But you never know

The thing is to give hope and I wonder if the main reasons their hasnt been many suicide bombers since Hamas won the elections was because palestinians now have hope. The pensioner party winning a significant number of seats shows that israelies also have hope.

Currently Israelies are promoting the meme, that you can't negotiate with Hamas as they are terrorist. So Israel will have to make unilateral decisions on the new borders. I come from a country where we have had two coups and the people who did the coups where democratically elected in the next election so that meme doesn't fly with me. The terrorist one day may be the president the next eg Mandela

So what needs to happen, the gang should meet, its very hard to hate people when you have to meet them constantly for a common good for all. The key is both sides have to eat the past digressions and be professional in moving forward. The main cards Hamas have is indigenous rights and overseas support and can easily lose that once Israel takes back the moral high ground.

Whatever discussion takes place it shouldnt be a zero-sum game but a win-win where the perceptions of win will have to be managed for each side.

Israel should not make unilateral decisions unless there is a real attempt of dialog and softening of Hamas Stand, which I see is already happening. Hamas will not win the next election if they dont take the opportunity that Isreal should give them.

If an agreement gets completed, it will probably last only one generation but is something I wouldnt have predicted a year ago and it would be a major step forward in addressing the Middle East problems and current Muslim anger.


Blogger Why Palestinians Usually Get It Wrong said...

The two sides will meet when Hamas recognizes Israel and renounces violence.

4:04 am  

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