Monday, January 30, 2006

BBC World Economic Debate - Jobs

BBC World just broadcasted the The World Debate from the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland. Were the main issue was Jobs in the Future
The World Economic Forum is an independent international organisation committed to improving the state of the world.

The main reason for the debate, is the world is currently facing the highest level of unemployment

Western World Participants main points
  • Private Companies are the best method to create new jobs
  • In the US one third of people change jobs change every year and people within the age group of 20-36 will change around 10 jobs during that period.
  • As long as there is economic growth then the Job situation should be addressed
  • There are not enough jobs to support the pensions, mainly due to the low fertility rates but countries are not willing to accept migration from 3rd world countries only managed migration.
  • You can't generalize the job issue for the EU countries as there are some countries that have addressed their jobs problems like Sweden, Finland and UK
  • US Model wont work in some EU Countries due to the issue of employment security.

Developing World Participants main points were
  • Focusing on local issues is the best way to go forward and for African countries the use of micro credit is a good way to create jobs
  • Focus on creating local jobs and strategizing based on demographics
  • The use of Offshouring is good for countries like India and China but cant be the solution as it takes only a small percentage of work in a country.
  • Underemployment is a significant factor that is not being addressed or communicated
  • US model wont work in Developing Worlds

General Points that were a consensus
  • Jobs convey dignity and countries with a high unemployement are at risk
  • Jobs can be created with positive business environment for investment and need to invest in human capital

My Take on the Jobs in the Future

You cant use the same economic model for all countries due to different perceptions and traditions. Each country should find the best model for themselves but with the notion that they are still part of the Global Village. Like in a County not all States/Cities have the same type of jobs and economic model.

I don’t believe that you should leave Jobs to Market forces as that will be a detriment to the countries that have high labour costs.

Each country should have their own benchmarks of success as you cant expect an African country to be on the same average wages as US/China in the next twenty years. Expect same benchmark for success when the necessary infrastructure is consistent.

My main point for economic development of a country is that investment in human capital has the biggest returns for a country.

The US model of transient workers will be the way forward. Only it will be transient workers in terms of countries where Countries with high unemployed skilled workers will move to Developed countries that don’t have enough skilled workers to support the current lifestyle. Currently there is little political will for this to happen but once voters lifestyles are shown to be at risk then the “political will” will come.

I can see mass migration from India and Developing European countries to more developed countries where Chinese will have less of a need to migrate in another ten years.

Remittances in Fiji has now overtaken Cane Income and I suspect remittances actually beats Tourism due to the majority of the tourism dollars goes back to the investors overseas. The effect of this is there is more money circulating in Fiji and the property prices have significantly increased.


Blogger George said...

In the latest State of the Union Address Bush is trying to sell the idea of getting more immigrants to help pay for the retiring Baby Boomers.

So getting the Political win is starting to occur.

11:23 pm  

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